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Cake day: March 22nd, 2024

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  • I mean, this isn’t true from my perspective. All the Chinese LLM labs are still developing full steam ahead. Model/architectures are getting updated so quickly it’s a meme amongst inference framework devs, because they can’t even support one model before the next one is already out.

    …They’ve always been thrifty, though. The difference is they don’t need a trillion dollar bubble to fund their modest, more sustainable dev/inference costs.


  • Like others said, it looks better next quarter than a bunch of new projects. Short term gain vs long.

    But also, their expenses from all that hosting and usage are high. They’ve masked it creatively, but that only works so long.

    Maybe they’re trying to make their balance sheet look less catastrophic in the short term (again, at the expense of the long term).

    Whatever it is, that will be the underlying theme. Things must look good immediately, at the expense of sustainability.





  • It doesn’t literally mean “90% failure rate vs 100%”

    In the HLE benchmark, for example, we may be talking about 45% test score for MiMo Pro or GLM or something, vs 55% for Sonnet and 61% for maxed out Claude.

    But further complicating that, those particular open weight models do better than Claude in one particular hallucination benchmark, meaning Claude/ChatGPT might be worse at RAG/extraction type workloads. It’s like this across the board, with different models trading blows in different areas.

    By “90%,” he really means “it’s so close the better model depends on the particular application, workload, harness, sampling configuration” and such, and that none of these models are close to “100% accuracy” across the board.


    One other thing: Anthropic, OpenAI, and Grok have all been accused of “dumbing down” models under high demand to speed up inference. If your application depends on them, and they are the only provider, that could throw a wrench in the workflow.

    But open weights? Pick your provider. You get an API as consistent as you are willing to pay for.

    In other words, that “100%” isn’t really representing the potential inconsistency one gets being locked to a single provider.










  • In case anyone forgot, Meta was the pioneer of open weight models, with Llama 1 released/leaked February 2023.

    They literally set the standard. Yes there was GPT-J before it, but basically everything in the open weights LLM space is derived from the Llama series, its footprint is still in newest Chinese models. The world was Meta’s oyster.

    …And after one bad experiment, an experiment Zuckerberg allegedly meddled with (Llama 4), Zuck fired the whole Llama team, paid millions to a bunch of tech bros in their place, who proceeded to nothing for a good long while.


    Muse Glimmer is obsolete, IMO.

    Muse Spark is… not terrible? Its architecture (GQA + sliding window attention) is about a year or two out of date, but it… could be worse.


    But this is just a reminder to anyone who thinks Zuck won’t find some way to feel insecure and fuck Muse up.

    He will.

    It is what he does. Zuck caused incalculable damage to his company, single-handedly, and he will do it again with zero repercussions.

    Same with Musk. And Altman. Not to speak of Microsoft vacuuming up promising startups into a black hole. The U.S. AI industry was basically doomed from the beginning.