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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • Intel just came out of a floundering period of underinvestment, took on a lot of debt to recapitalize a bunch of stuff and was promised government money to help. Trump withheld money approved under the chips act, until they promised to give him shares in return.

    The share prices(20$ in august 2025) was pretty aggressively depressed by the fact that the money had been withheld after Intel had already spent that money on new production lines and recapitalization. It popped up when the government funding finally came through.

    Over the past 2 years, they’ve made some pretty impressive increases in revenue, largely from “foundry services” and sales of their chips to data center buildouts(still need CPUs even if all the focus is on memory and GPUs). Foundry services being where they do the manufacturing for a third party who designs and sells the chips (like TSMC does), where in the past Intel has only produced their own designs. Both of these have been helped by all that investment that was costing them so much.

    The problem lately has been that they’ve been getting over valued due to datacenter mania (130$ a share at the end of June 2026). Everyone assuming growth on the datacenter side will continue at the same pace… forever. Now everyone’s concluding that maybe, that’s a bit unrealistic, so their share price is dropping (about 60$ a share currently).

    Their share price is still 3X what it was 2 years ago, and revenue is up 10 billion as well. A large part of that being the foundry services, not just the datacenter side.




  • Not mentioned in the article but TSMC (company that actually manufactures the chips for everyone (except intel who manufacture their own designs)) has lost nearly 17% of it’s stock price over the past month, 7% in the last week.

    All of these companies were being valued based on the assumption that the number of GPU data centers being built would increase as time went on. Essentially that the demand for the these various products would not just stay as high as it is, but keep getting higher.

    This is just a bunch of analysts saying “ok, well, maybe the number of data centers being built will not increase drastically, and the demand for these products will stay the same”. The real blood bath comes if they start saying “there will be less datacenters constructed next year than there are currently under construction.”

    The current shift in sentiment probably comes from the “disappointing” info from the companies that would be buying all the compute from the data-centers. Google missing ad revenue growth targets due to Gemini cannibalize search. Anthropic preparing to IPO and being forced to show less than stellar financials.

    I suspect that this down turn is temporary and Valuations will rise angain and we will see another big crash before this hype cycle truly dies.