I assure you, if you are a brokie like the rest of us, you will not have the money to spare in the ensuing recession. Honestly I expect personal computing is dead, likely for a decade or more, if it ever comes back.
Last night, my friends and I were talking about how we’re trying to spend more time at home to save money. Instead of going out to a bar, we’re starting to plan more hangouts at home. Why spend $2k/month on rent if we aren’t going to be there? It feels like anytime I leave the house, I’m spending $100 or more. We all were at a bar last weekend watching college football, and after spending $10/drink, we dipped out, bought $50 in beer and pizza, and played Mario Kart at a friend’s house. Much cheaper to just play games at home and hangout.
Well, the downside of that is that it’s insular, you lose the opportunity of meeting new people
And sure, not everyone cares about doing that a lot of the time, but for me personally that’s a great loss at least. I love meeting new people, and everyone being priced out of existing in social meeting places… sucks. A lot
If I already had a solid group of friends, I wouldn’t really care for meeting new people. If someone cool comes along, awesome. Welcome to the group.
But why would I actively go out and try to sift through the 95%+ of people at bars who are either A) shitty, B) don’t give a fuck about me, or C) both; just to try to find one or two new people that I might exchange a couple texts with over the next two weeks before we proceed to forget about each other entirely?
If I already have friends at home who just wanna hang out and play Mario Kart or Magic: The Gathering or Catan or something? Why would I need to talk to strangers, most of whom would just tell me to get bent anyway…
It wont be like dead dead, but just stagnant. Companies like nvidia will just sell the barely passable hardware with even less reason to upgrade because the prices will rise and the performance jumps will decrease. The good thing is that even the entry level hardware was already good enough for 95% of use cases and what justified upgrades anyway was mostly AAA gaming graphics slop or heavy 3d renders for professionals.
afaik they havent, they committed to buying them, so they will be built, and when they dont buy them because they are insolvent, we should be able to get them at good prices
Unfortunately the bubble popping will not provide you with better or cheaper access to those. At this point it is artificially created scarcity because they don’t want consumers to own hardware anymore. Even with the AI bubble popping, the tech oligarchs (with NVIDA at the helm) will still be pursuing their wet dreams of consumers having to subscribe to their cloudbased computers for everything.
You might, I think I would (at least personally, professionally I may not have a choice) but the vast majority of people will gladly go with this plan I suspect.
Look at car purchasing, most people don’t look at the sticker price or the total cost of ownership, they stop paying attention as long as their income can (and in a lot of cases it technically can but really shouldn’t) support the monthly payment.
Similar thing with new phones, most people buy a service plan that includes a lease or loan on a device. Very few people buy their sevice outright, because that’s a big purchase vs. a smaller monthly payment.
If there was a market for this for laptops, regular folks would eat it up.
That’s all opinion, so take it for what it’s worth. I hope I’m wrong. I’m fearful I’m not.
Waiting for the bubble to pop. I need a new GPU and maybe a SSD.
I assure you, if you are a brokie like the rest of us, you will not have the money to spare in the ensuing recession. Honestly I expect personal computing is dead, likely for a decade or more, if it ever comes back.
From one brokie to another, drowning in debt is indistinguishable from drowning in debt with a GPU and SSD.
Last night, my friends and I were talking about how we’re trying to spend more time at home to save money. Instead of going out to a bar, we’re starting to plan more hangouts at home. Why spend $2k/month on rent if we aren’t going to be there? It feels like anytime I leave the house, I’m spending $100 or more. We all were at a bar last weekend watching college football, and after spending $10/drink, we dipped out, bought $50 in beer and pizza, and played Mario Kart at a friend’s house. Much cheaper to just play games at home and hangout.
That’s awesome. You guys should stockpile a few good boardgames while you’re at it, for when you want to switch things up
Well, the downside of that is that it’s insular, you lose the opportunity of meeting new people
And sure, not everyone cares about doing that a lot of the time, but for me personally that’s a great loss at least. I love meeting new people, and everyone being priced out of existing in social meeting places… sucks. A lot
If I already had a solid group of friends, I wouldn’t really care for meeting new people. If someone cool comes along, awesome. Welcome to the group.
But why would I actively go out and try to sift through the 95%+ of people at bars who are either A) shitty, B) don’t give a fuck about me, or C) both; just to try to find one or two new people that I might exchange a couple texts with over the next two weeks before we proceed to forget about each other entirely?
If I already have friends at home who just wanna hang out and play Mario Kart or Magic: The Gathering or Catan or something? Why would I need to talk to strangers, most of whom would just tell me to get bent anyway…
It wont be like dead dead, but just stagnant. Companies like nvidia will just sell the barely passable hardware with even less reason to upgrade because the prices will rise and the performance jumps will decrease. The good thing is that even the entry level hardware was already good enough for 95% of use cases and what justified upgrades anyway was mostly AAA gaming graphics slop or heavy 3d renders for professionals.
The bad news is that entry level hardware will cost more than high end hardware did last year
and they already bought years worth of chips, so no computing for a long time.
afaik they havent, they committed to buying them, so they will be built, and when they dont buy them because they are insolvent, we should be able to get them at good prices
https://thedeepdive.ca/openai-locked-up-40-of-global-ram-with-no-obligation-to-buy-any-of-it/
The main thing will be the value of the dollar becoming next to null.
Putting some of your savings in foreign currencies can help dampen the blow a bit. That is, if you have savings to spare…
Unfortunately the bubble popping will not provide you with better or cheaper access to those. At this point it is artificially created scarcity because they don’t want consumers to own hardware anymore. Even with the AI bubble popping, the tech oligarchs (with NVIDA at the helm) will still be pursuing their wet dreams of consumers having to subscribe to their cloudbased computers for everything.
I will quit the internet before I become a renter of everything I used to just use free.
You might, I think I would (at least personally, professionally I may not have a choice) but the vast majority of people will gladly go with this plan I suspect.
Look at car purchasing, most people don’t look at the sticker price or the total cost of ownership, they stop paying attention as long as their income can (and in a lot of cases it technically can but really shouldn’t) support the monthly payment.
Similar thing with new phones, most people buy a service plan that includes a lease or loan on a device. Very few people buy their sevice outright, because that’s a big purchase vs. a smaller monthly payment.
If there was a market for this for laptops, regular folks would eat it up.
That’s all opinion, so take it for what it’s worth. I hope I’m wrong. I’m fearful I’m not.
Free or one time purchase and possible payments for once in a while big updates. I don’t mind paying when the offer is good and I have money.
I am not paying google shit. Or any of them. I will join a privateering crew first.
I love computers but never enough to participate in their plans.
I know how to read. Write. Draw. Go on walks. Play sports. Basically sit and watch paint dry than give a shit about not using a computer again